What each figure on Orange Paper is, how it’s calculated, where it comes from, and when it updates. v2, updated Nov 2, 2026.
| Every figure is sourced | Each number traces to a filing, an issuer’s own dashboard, or a market data feed, and shows its date. Hover any as-of stamp for its sources. |
| Filings are read, then checked | New 8-Ks are read by AI within minutes of reaching SEC EDGAR. Every figure must appear word for word in the filing, its number must appear in its quote, and it must pass range and cross-checks (bitcoin bought × average price ≈ cost; previous holdings + bought = new total). A filing that fails a check is held for review, not published. |
| Their definitions, then ours | When an issuer publishes a metric (mNAV, BTC Yield, amplification), we show it as they define it, labelled as theirs, and our recalculation on one basis beside it. Our own calculations are labelled “Orange Paper calculation.” |
| Not investment advice | Orange Paper publishes data and models. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. |
What the market pays for each dollar of bitcoin behind a share. Four definitions, applied the same way to Strategy and Strive.
| Strategy’s definition | Share price ÷ net bitcoin per share. Net bitcoin = bitcoin − out-of-the-money debt − preferred + cash, over fully diluted shares (basic + options and RSUs + in-the-money converts). Strategy’s own method; we apply it to Strive too. The default. |
| Simple | Market cap on basic shares ÷ bitcoin value. |
| Diluted | Market cap on assumed diluted shares ÷ bitcoin value. |
| EV ÷ bitcoin | (Market cap + debt + preferred − cash) ÷ bitcoin value. |
Bitcoin value = bitcoin held × the live bitcoin price. Holdings are the latest filed total plus purchases reported since.
Whether the bitcoin behind each share is growing.
| BTC Yield (Strategy’s KPI) | % change in bitcoin per assumed diluted share since the period began: the close of the last day of the previous year (YTD) or quarter (QTD). |
| BTC Gain | Bitcoin held when the period began × BTC Yield, in bitcoin. BTC $ Gain = BTC Gain × the bitcoin price. |
| Net of claims (ours, the default on our charts) | The same, after debt and preferred face, less cash, are taken out of the bitcoin before it’s divided among the shares. Claims are turned into bitcoin at the bitcoin price at each period’s end. Gross is one button away. |
Assumed diluted shares come from filings, rolled forward with weekly share sales and buybacks. Where no diluted count is on file, basic shares are used and the figure says so.
How much harder the bitcoin behind a share moves than bitcoin itself, because of what the company owes. Quoted three ways.
| Preferred ÷ bitcoin | Preferred face ÷ bitcoin value. |
| Debt and preferred ÷ bitcoin | (Debt + preferred face) ÷ bitcoin value. Strive states its own this way, as a percentage. |
| Net of cash (Strategy’s) | (Debt + preferred face − cash) ÷ bitcoin value. Strategy quotes it as a multiple: bitcoin ÷ (bitcoin − debt − preferred + cash). |
Any of the three converts to a multiple on the common: 1 ÷ (1 − the percentage). Explainer: /learn/what-is-amplification.
Whether an issuer can keep paying its preferred holders.
| Yearly obligations | A year of preferred dividends at current rates: each series’ face value × its annual rate, added up. Note interest is not included yet. |
| Liquidity | Strategy: the USD Reserve + discretionary cash, from the same weekly 8-K. Strive: cash + its STRC stake at the live STRC price. |
| Years covered | (Bitcoin value + liquidity) ÷ yearly obligations. |
| Years of cash | Liquidity ÷ yearly obligations. |
| Breakeven ARR | Yearly obligations ÷ (bitcoin value + liquidity): how much the treasury must grow each year to pay its dividends without shrinking. |
Strategy’s weekly 8-K states two pools of cash.
| USD Reserve | Cash set aside for preferred dividends and debt interest. Under Strategy’s policy (Jun 29, 2026) it may be used only for those, and buybacks are not funded from it; any other use needs the board’s approval. |
| Discretionary cash | The cash outside the USD Reserve. It pays for buybacks and bitcoin. Stated by Strategy since the week to Aug 30, 2026. |
| Weeks of buybacks | Discretionary cash ÷ the average weekly buyback over the last four filings. |
Quarter-end cash and cash equivalents from the 10-Qs can be lower than the USD Reserve: part of the reserve is held outside cash and cash equivalents. Strategy did not state the reserve weekly from mid-March to May 25, 2026, so our chart shows a gap there.
| Bought back, sold | Weekly share counts and dollars from the 8-K tables. Quarter-to-date totals in earnings releases that repeat weekly figures are dropped so nothing is counted twice. |
| Program authorized | What’s still authorized + everything spent, as the weekly 8-Ks report them. A raise shows as a step. |
| Cost of each sale or buyback | A year’s dividend on a share ÷ the price per share. For a sale, higher means dearer money; for a buyback, higher means more dividend retired per dollar. |
A letter from AAA to D for the modeled odds that an issuer can’t fund the next 5 years of dividends and interest from its cash plus its bitcoin.
| The model | Cash + bitcoin with a 20% haircut, at the 30-day average bitcoin price; bitcoin run forward on a flat path at 50% volatility; the odds of a 5-year shortfall mapped to a letter. |
| Notches | Perpetual preferreds capped at A; −1 for ranking behind STRF and STRC; −1 for non-cumulative dividends; −1 for a cash runway under 12 months. |
| When | A rating moves with its inputs. Each weekday at 8:50 PM ET the day’s letter is recorded, and every change is logged with its inputs. |
Orange Ratings are Orange Paper’s opinions from a published model, not ratings from a registered credit rating agency. Full policy: /ratings-policy.
Curves fitted to past prices. None is a forecast or a floor.
| Bitcoin power law | Fair value = 10^−16.493 × age^5.688, age in days since Jan 3, 2009. Floor = fair value × 0.398; ceiling = fair value × 2.512. A fixed formula (frozen Jun 6, 2026); we don’t refit it. |
| Power law per share (MSTR, ASST) | Bitcoin’s power law × today’s net bitcoin per share, at 1.0× mNAV. Net bitcoin per share = (bitcoin − (preferred + debt that doesn’t convert − cash) ÷ today’s fair value) ÷ assumed diluted shares. Today’s balance sheet is carried back and forward, so it’s one smooth curve. |
| At the 1-year median mNAV | The same curves × the median of the last 252 sessions’ mNAV: where the stock would sit at its usual premium. |
| 200-week average, projected | 1,400 days of daily closes. ln(average) fitted against ln(age) on weekly points, anchored to today. Line: every week since Jul 2018; shading: the fit since 2022. |
| MSTR exponential | ln(price) fitted as a straight line in time on every close since Aug 11, 2020, refitted as prices arrive. Bands at ±2 standard deviations. |
| Projection | The models above draw past today: 10 years on All by default (1, 5, 10, or 20 to choose). Indicators built on moving averages of price stop at today. |
| Source | What | When |
|---|---|---|
| Twelve Data | Prices for stocks and US preferreds; bitcoin and EUR/USD | Live stream, plus 1-minute bars: 4:00 AM to 8:00 PM ET on trading days; bitcoin around the clock |
| Luxembourg Stock Exchange | STRE: best bid, best ask, last trade (bid/ask midpoint used) | Every 15 minutes in its trading hours |
| SEC EDGAR | 8-Ks, 10-Qs, 10-Ks, prospectus supplements | Checked every minute; 8-Ks read and checked within minutes |
| SEC EDGAR (Form 4) | Insider trades at Strategy and Strive | Every 15 minutes |
| strategy.com | Strategy’s published figures, the dividend calendar | Daily after the close, compared with ours |
| Strive’s treasury dashboard | Strive’s published figures, the dividend calendar | Daily after the close, compared with ours |
| FINRA | Short interest | Weekday evenings (FINRA publishes twice a month) |
| FRED | Treasury and high-yield rates | Daily |
| Options chains (Twelve Data) | MSTR and ASST options | Every 15 minutes in the session |
| Coinbase | Bitcoin daily trading volume | Daily |
| Orange Paper | Daily history of every metric; Orange Ratings recorded | 8:45 PM ET and 8:50 PM ET, weekdays |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Methodology v2: this page, rewritten from the code. Ratings are recorded at 8:50 PM ET (not 7:00 AM ET as first published). Discretionary cash and buybacks still authorized get their own chart; a low-cash alert added. |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Power law per share drawn as one smooth curve; the 1-year median mNAV version split out as its own indicator. Projected 200-week average added. |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Bitcoin per share and BTC Yield shown net of claims by default; gross one button away. |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Strategy’s cash outside the USD Reserve stored as its own figure (discretionary cash), counted with the reserve in liquidity. |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Marketable securities count in liquidity (Strive’s STRC stake), as Strive counts them. |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Methodology v1 and launch of the first modules. |